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UCD Clinton Institute for American Studies

US Elections 2008

The UCD Clinton Institute for American Studies and the US Embassy co-hosted a panel discussion on the US elections in the US Embassy, Ballsbridge, Dublin, on 06 February 2008. The panel which included representatives from across the political spectrum was chaired by RTE Broadcaster, Ryan Tubridy. On the discussion panel were: Professor Liam Kennedy, UCD Clinton Institute for American Studies; Linda O'Shea-Farren, Solicitor; Professor Steven Knowlton, Dublin City University; Constantin Gurdgiev, Editor, Business and Finance; and Martina Muldoon (DCU). The panel voiced their opinions on the key issues associated with the election. These included the economy, foreign policy and the war in Iraq, and matters of leadership in both parties. There was considerable interest in the competition for the Democratic nomination, with discussion focusing on the merits and prospects of Senators Clinton and Obama, and general agreement that this was one of the most exciting election campaigns in recent times, not least due to the unpredictability of outcomes.

A good deal of commentary focused on the raw results of Super Tuesday and their implications for the nominations and the election in November. With results still not fully available when the discussion took place, several trends were identified by the panelists as they considered outcomes. In particular, there was commentary on the voting patterns supporting each candidate. With the Democratic nomination contest seemingly ‘too close to call’, the voting patterns underlying support for Senators Obama and Clinton was deemed to be significant in indicating the eventual nomination. Sen Clinton showed strong support among Hispanic, women, blue collar and older voters, while Sen Obama’s strongest blocs were among Africa-American, young and more affluent male voters. The candidate who can draw beyond these established trends would likely win the nomination. The incoming results for Republican candidates suggested a less fractured vote, with Sen John McCain taking a commanding lead and Gov Mitt Romney almost certainly being forced out of the race. Some observers noted that the strong polling for Sen Mike Huckerbee in southern states indicated that Sen McCain will continue to have difficulties uniting Republicans nationally as more hard core conservatives remain reluctant to support him.

Commenting on the importance of this election, Professor Liam Kennedy, Director of the UCD Clinton Institute for American Studies, noted: ‘This has been a fascinating election campaign thus far, especially due to its unpredictability. This is due in part to the strong lineup of candidates, but also to the moving forward of primary and caucus dates and the shifting concerns of the electorate. The war in Iraq has moved down the list of concerns of most voters as the economy has moved up. At the same time, this unpredictable nature of the campaign has meant a dilution of the influence of activists, fundraisers and pundits. At the risk of being prematurely idealistic about this, I’d say there are signs that the American electorate is fed up with divisive politics and there is a general desire for a more open and inclusive process. That said, both parties have internal divisions that may yet alienate voters and turn the outcome of the national election. The Democrats seem almost evenly split between the ‘base’ that supports Sen Clinton and the promise of a broader reach held out by Sen Obama. Right now, money and momentum are on Sen Obama’s side and he will likely take a lead in delegates over the next few primaries, but watch for the big results – Texas and Ohio – on 4th March as these are where Sen Clinton’s team will concentrate their energies. Sen McCain is assured the nomination but has problems uniting the party as the more conservative base continues to have reservations about his candidacy. Sen McCain will need to bring the conservatives onside if he is to win the national election as they can mobilize key constituencies to vote. Elections are won on turnout.’

A straw poll of the audience at the US embassy event suggested overwhelming support for the Democratic candidates and there was follow up discussion on the strong Irish identification with Democrats. The energetic discussion reflected the very high level of interest in this election among the Irish public. The Clinton Institute will continue to provide expert commentary on the contest through to November.